Unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve heard about the ongoing controversy over NFL players kneeling during the national anthem. Everybody seems to have an opinion on the protests. President Trump has called the protests “Total disrespect for our great country!” Jerry Jones (owner of the Dallas Cowboys) has threatened to bench any player that kneeled in protest.

The protests were started by Colin Kaepernick, who was the starting QB for the 49ers at the time. At the end of the 2016-2017 season Kaepernick was informed by the 49ers he was going to be cut so he opted out of his contract. As a former starter, it was widely assumed that Kaepernick would have another job (possibly as a starter for another team, but more likely as a backup) within a few weeks.

One year later he’s still unemployed. And with the completion of the 2018 NFL draft we now have 256 new players in the NFL (plus an equal number of undrafted free agents fighting to make a team) – this makes it even less likely that Kaepernick will have a job anytime soon.

What can Kaepernick’s unemployment teach us about our own careers?

Why does an NFL team exist?

For some reason most people seem to misunderstand the purpose of an NFL team. When I read articles about the Kaepernick situation I often see arguments that revolve around whether or not Kaepernick is better than some other quarterback who DOES have a job in the NFL. The article will point out that Kaepernick is a better QB (or at least a more accomplished QB) than some other QB and thus there’s no good reason that Kaepernick shouldn’t be playing in the NFL.

This argument is predicated on the idea that the better player should be playing because the better player will help the team win more games. And THAT is important because the whole point of an NFL team is to win games, right?

WRONG.

The goal of an NFL team is NOT to win game.

The goal of an NFL team is not to bring pride to the city or unite the fans.

The goal of an NFL team is to make money.

The value of an NFL team ranges from $1.6B to 4.8B. Owners expect to get a return on those investments.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that winning is irrelevant. Putting a winning team on the field increases ticket sales, which results in more money. And yes, owners like to “win” – they didn’t get to be billionaires by not being competitive. Owners want to win championships. Owners want to be able to sit at the next owner’s meeting and show off their championship ring.

But ultimately, it’s the money that matters, not the winning.

Of course, winning games isn’t irrelevant. In general, a team that wins more game will sell more tickets and more jerseys. A winning team can charge more for the luxury boxes that have become a huge part of team revenue. Winning more games leads to more money.

And having the best players makes it much more likely that a team will win. If better players lead to more wins, and more wins lead to more money, then NFL teams should be trying to get the best players.

Is Kaepernick good enough to be playing in the NFL?

First, let’s get this out of the way – Colin Kaepernick is clearly better than most (if not all) third-string and second-string quarterbacks currently in the NFL. I don’t think you’ll find many reasonable people who will dispute this fact. He’s also currently better than most (if not all) of the quarterbacks drafted in the 2018 draft. That’s not to say that some of those quarterbacks won’t be better that Kaepernick in the (possibly near) future. But right now, it’s hard to argue that a recently drafted 22 year old kid who has never played a snap in the NFL is better than a QB who took his team to the Super Bowl a few years ago.

That said, I don’t think Kaepernick is as good as or better than most of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. There are a million different metrics that can be used to prove or disprove just about any assertion related to the relative superiority of NFL athletes, but one of the ones I like best for evaluating QBs is the ESPN QBR (Quarter Back Rating). Basically, it’s a metric designed to isolate a QB’s impact on the game. By that metric, in Kapernick’s last season (2016), he was a below-average starter, ranking 23 out of 30 QBs.

ESPN’s QBR isn’t an exact metric, but let’s just say that Kaepernick was in the bottom half of starting quarterbacks in the 2016 season. He’s now been out of the league for 18+ months. Not playing for that long has to have a negative effect on his abilities. It’s unlikely that Kaepernick is still good enough in the Summer of 2018 to be a starting QB. However, he’s almost certainly still good enough to be a 2nd or 3rd string QB.

And yet, despite that, Kaepernick is still unemployed.

Clearly there is something else going on here beyond an evaluation of his talent level.

Why isn’t Kaepernick on a team?

The reality is simple. Kaepernick is unemployed for a non-football related reason – he’s too controversial. If Kaepernick were picked up by a team, even if it was for the league minimum (meaning he was costing the team almost nothing) and even if he was the third-string quarterback who would almost be assured to never play, many of the fans of the team that signed him would go ballistic. Calls to the local talk radio station would be scathing. Some fans would refuse to renew season tickets. Many fans would call for a boycott of the team.

The negative publicity would be overwhelming and, most importantly, costly to the owner and the league.

Bringing in a player as controversial as Kaepernick will cost a team money.

But why is Kaepernick so controversial? Why is there so much hatred directed towards him?

Let’s look at what Kaepernick is actually protesting.

Kaepernick is protesting the fact that white people and minorities are treated differently by the police and the US justice system. This is a fact, not an opinion. From AmericanProgress.org:

• Minorities are 30% of the population and 60% of the prison population
• When convicted, black offenders receive sentences that are 10% longer, on average, than white offenders

Another study found that black people are 7x more likely to be wrongfully convicted of murder than white people and 12x more likely to be wrongfully convicted of drug charges.

Add to that the recent spate of unarmed black people being shot by the police and you either have to be living under a rock or pursuing an agenda to believe there’s not a problem here.  Everybody probably agrees with the basic idea that people should be treated fairly, regardless of skin color. And given the state of things in America, it’s impossible to argue that everybody IS being treated fairly – clearly white people and black people are treated differently by the police.

If most people would agree that there’s a problem in our justice system, and Kaepernick is protesting our justice system, why has his protest upset so man people?

Kaepernick is protesting in the wrong way

The problem is simple – the way he’s protesting isn’t aligned with what he’s protesting against.

He’s been protesting the treatment of black people by kneeling during the national anthem. He’s not kneeling during a police anthem. He’s not kneeling during a US Justice Department anthem. He’s kneeling during the national anthem.

Kaepernick justifies this by saying, “I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of color”.

Here’s where a lack of precision is really costing Kaepernick.  Kaepernick believes that the COUNTRY is oppressing black people and people of color. In this case, the country (the USA) is made up of about 310 million different people, all of whom have different beliefs. Saying that the country is oppressing black people is saying that the 310 million people that make up the USA are oppressing black people. Kaepernick has referred to the problem as “institutional racism”. That means he believes racism is embedded into and supported by the various institutions of the US government.

People don’t tend to like being accused of racism, especially people who aren’t racist. Americans tend to be pretty proud of their country. Implying that the whole country is racist isn’t going to help your cause.

If Kaepernick had found a way to more closely align his protest with the thing he’s actually protesting I think he’d have had a very different outcome. If, instead of kneeling during the national anthem, he’d led protests in front of the police stations where officers have shot unarmed black men I think he’d be happily playing in the NFL now.

Kaepernick’s problem is that by protesting the symbol of the entire United States you’re going make a lot of people angry.

Of course, the whole point of a protest is to get attention. There’s no point in having a protest that nobody notices. In that sense, Kaepernick’s decision to make his protest on the field during a nationally televised event was the best way to bring attention to his cause. Protesting during the national anthem brought a lot of attention to his cause but caused public sentiment to turn against him personally.

No forgiveness for Kaepernick

Kaepernick is certainly not the first athlete to have public opinion turn against him. Michael Vick was suspended (and went to jail) for running a dog fighting ring. Adrian Peterson was suspended for child abuse. Dozens of players have been suspended in just the last year for various domestic violence related charges. Every one of these players is back in the NFL.

Why?

Because for these players the issue was that they committed a crime. And regardless of the crime, the athlete could come forward with an apology and a promise to change.

This avenue isn’t available to Kaepernick because he hasn’t committed a crime. He hasn’t been suspended. The hatred directed towards him is because of what he believes.

He’s not going to apologize for what he believes, and this means there’s no way for him to get “forgiven” by the public.

The sliding scale

Kaepernick’s political leanings would be ignored (or forgiven) if he was a super star player. The sad reality is that the better a player is, the more he can get away with. A superstar will be forgiven for something that a fringe player is immediately fired for.

If Kaepernick had won 13 games in his last year playing for the 49ers he’d probably be playing somewhere. If Kaepernick was as good as Tom Brady or Peyton Manning he’d have a job. Fans would forgive their team for bringing in Kaepernick if they thought he was going to win games (remember, the owner of the team cares about money, but fans care about wins). Unfortunately, Kaepernick plays at a spot (quarterback) where only 1 player plays the position the entire game. There might only be 1 running back on the field at any given time, but it’s not uncommon to play 2-3 different running backs in a single series. It’s unusual to play anybody other than your starting QB unless the starting QB is injured or the game is so far out of reach that you pull your starting QB so he doesn’t get injured.

This makes it tougher for Kaepernick to “earn” his way back into the good graces of the public. Even if it could be argued that he was good enough to be a starting QB at the end of the 2016-2017 season, it’s hard to argue that’s the case now. And if he’s not starting, the chances of him playing as a 2nd string or, God forbid, a 3rd string QB are relatively small. No playing time = no chance to redeem himself on the field.

At this point, it’s hard to imagine Kaepernick ever playing in the NFL again.

What can we learn from Kaepernick’s experience?

There are four huge lessons we can learn about how to handle the intersection of work and our personal lives.

Think about all the possible consequences before you act

The NFL doesn’t have a rule saying that players need to stand during the national anthem. They are allowed to protest by taking a knee. However, as I often tell my kids, just because you CAN do something doesn’t mean you SHOULD do something.

In this case, I’m not sure that Kaepernick really thought through the potential ramifications of his protest. Did he think about how this protest might upset people? Did he think about the fact that upsetting the fans would make it harder to get a contract with another team?

I’m not saying Kaepernick shouldn’t have protested. It just seems that, based on his surprise about not getting another contract, that he wasn’t fully prepared for the consequences.

This is why it’s a bad idea to mix business and politics. There’s a reason that Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods completely avoided politics during their playing days. They understood that, in order to maximize their marketing appeal, it was best to avoid discussing politics (or anything else controversial) and instead concentrate on their sport.

Similarly, I’m always surprised by people who throw a fit when they are fired for something they said or did on social media. Some people seem to have the mistaken idea that you can only be disciplined/fired for something done as part of your employment. The reality is that in most states in the US your employment is “at will”, meaning you can be fired for any reason (or no reason at all). If you make disparaging comments about your company on Facebook they can fire you. If you get arrested for something completely unrelated to your job they can fire you. If you do something else that your employer doesn’t like, they can fire you.

If you like your job or, more importantly, NEED your job, don’t do anything to piss off your employer.

And if you don’t like this rule, then either start your own company or get independently wealthy as fast as possible so you don’t need your job.

Know your true value

My guess is that Kaepernick overestimated his football value. He probably thought he was good enough that the protests wouldn’t affect his ability to get another contract. I’ve read rumors that Kaepernick has been offered a few different backup opportunities over the last 18 months, all of which he turned down (presumably because he feels he should be a starting QB, not a backup). This would further bolster the idea that Kaepernick overestimated his abilities/value.

If Kaepernick had a more realistic idea of his value then he would have likely taken one of the backup options offered to him over the last 18 months. By holding out for something he was unlikely to get (a starting position) he’s destroyed his career.

Don’t make the same mistake.

I’m sure we all know people who had a disagreement with their manager and either quit or threatened to quit in protest. These people have often overestimated their value and are surprised when their employer lets them leave. And, sadly, these people are further surprised when they can’t find another job with the same or better salary.

Before you threaten to quit your job or demand a raise, try to get an unbiased assessment of your value. What do your colleagues think about your work? How valuable are you to the company? How important are you to your boss?

If your estimate of your value doesn’t match everybody else’s assessment, then either:

• you’re not as valuable as you think you are, or
• you haven’t done a good job making everybody else aware of your value

Find ways to increase your value (or at least the perception of your value) so you can always negotiate from a position of strength. 

Stay in the game

One of the problems that Kaepernick is struggling with now is that he’s been out of the NFL for so long that his skills have degraded. There’s just no way that he’s as effective a QB today as he was at the end of the 2016-2017 season. And a less effective QB is a less valuable QB.

Kaepernick almost certainly would have been better off taking any opportunity for the 2017-2018 season, even if it meant being the third string QB, playing for league minimum, or playing on the scout team. That would have at least allowed him to continue to work with professional coaches, workout in a pro caliber weight room surrounded by other elite athletes, and watch film with other QBs. 

The same applies to the rest of us. Leaving the workforce for any significant period of time will reduce your future earning potential. I wish this wasn’t the case. My wife is an attorney and we deliberately chose to have her stay home with the kids for the last 4.5 years. Not only have we lost her potential income for those 4.5 years, but if she went back to work tomorrow she will make less money in the next 12 months than she would have made if she hadn’t taken the time off of work. She has 4.5 less years of experience, 4.5 less years of contacts, etc.

For us, having my wife stay home with the kids has been a costly luxury we’ve been willing to pay, and we were only able to pay this cost because we’d spent years building our financial reserves and investing our excess cash so we’d be in position to have her not work.

Although it’s common in the FIRE community to talk about taking some time out of your career, recognize that this will come at a huge cost. Not only will you lose the income you would have made by working, but all of your future income will be reduced as well.

Let’s look at a very simple example. Say that you start working at age 22 and work until early retirement at 50 years old. You initially make $50,000/year and you get a 3% annual raise. You save 25% of your income, your living expenses are 50% of your income, and the remaining 25% is paid in taxes.

So, in your first year you make $50,000, save $12,500, and live on $25,000. At the end of the first year you take the $12,500 and invest it, and let’s say you earn a return of 10%/year.

The next year you get a raise to $51,500, you spend $25,750 and save $12,875. The previous year’s savings of $12,500 has grown to $13,750, and combined with the $12,875 you saved this year you now have $26,625. This continues until you retire at 50. Here’s what that looks like:

The total savings at 50 years old is $2,411,880.

Now look at what happens if you take a 3 year “pretirement” break from ages 31-33. First, you don’t make (or save) any money for those 3 years. Second, you still have living expenses, so you spend part of your investments to pay for your living expenses. To be generous, let’s say that your living expenses for those 3 years are the same as they were the year before you took time off.  Finally, let’s make the generous assumption that after 3 years out of the work force you’re able to find another job making the same money you did when you left. Here’s what that looks like:

The total savings at 50 years old is just $1,504,861.

Your 3 year break cost you $907,019! And this is making the assumption that your living expenses in the second scenario are permanently lower than in the first (that is, we are calculating living expenses as a % of salary, and since your salary is lower for ages 33-50, we are assuming your living expenses are as well). This means you are spending less money each year and STILL end up with less money in the “pretirement” scenario.

But you might point out that the comparison is unfair, as the “standard working career” scenario includes 3 additional years of work. Let’s look at the numbers through ages 53. In the standard scenario you’ve retired and you’re pulling your yearly living expenses from your investments. In the “pretirement” scenario you’re working until 53 years old, so you’re saving money each year to add to your investments.

Look at the total – the standard working career still finishes over $1M ahead ($3M vs. $2M), even after working the same number of years. In fact, I ran this scenario out through age 70 and the person who took a break NEVER catches up, even though they work an additional 20 years!

Think long and hard before taking a voluntary break from your career. (NOTE: this is different than early retirement, which is a voluntary end of your career.)

If you are so miserable in your current job that you must quit, try to find a job doing something you find interesting, regardless of what it pays. At the very least you’ll continue learning new skills and making new contacts as you decide what to do next.

Align yourself with your employer’s goals

Theoretically a NFL player should only care about wins. Players get paid based on how much they can help the team win games. Some positions (like QB) get paid a lot more than other positions (like punters) because it’s generally believed that QB’s have a great effect on the outcome of the game than the punter.

But as we discussed at the beginning of this article, the owner actually cares about making money, not winning games. Winning usually leads to money, but not always. Cowboys won a lot few games than the Super Bowl champion Eagles, but they still made a lot more money.

A smart employee will find ways to help his/her employer make more money. Your job description might be to process TPS reports, and your annual review might be based on how many TPS reports you processed in a year, but if you’ve found a way to make your employer more money while making your bosses look good then you’re going to be on the fast track to a promotion.

Always remember the bottom line of a business is to make money, and try to help your employer achieve that goal. Your real value to the company isn’t in completing the tasks in your job description – it’s finding ways to make your employer more profitable.

Conclusion

What are your thoughts on the NFL players’ protest?  Do you think Kaepernick should still be playing the NFL? Do you think it’s reasonable for any given NFL team to not want to hire somebody who will be a distraction?