Each month I publish our net worth on this blog. The reason for making our net worth public is to not only hold myself accountable, but to provide a record so I can review my progress over time. I’ll give a brief analysis on our results for the month and discuss any changes I’m thinking of making.
I track our net worth in both the “real” numbers and the Money Commando True Wealth Index (or MCTWI for short). The MCTWI is a way to provide a more stable and “true” valuation of the stock market by adjusting for valuation (that is, PE ratios that are higher or lower than the long-term market average). As a reminder – the MCTWI tells you how much your stock investments would be worth assuming “normal” valuation rather than the current valuation in the market.
The net worth report below includes an adjustment for the Money Commando True Wealth Index (MCTWI). The MCTWI for April, 2020 is 77%. This is down 4 percentage points from March, 2020.
If the market was suddenly revalued at the long-term average of 15.78x earnings rather than the current 20.57x earnings, then your stock market investments would be worth roughly 77% of what they are currently worth
Without further ado, here is our net worth report for April, 2020:
Our net worth for the month was up 5.0%, which significantly underperformed the S&P’s return of 12.82%. Our mix of cash, real estate, and equities means that our performance should be less volatile than the stock market – we should underperform when markets are up but outperform when markets are down.
Let’s take a closer look at our assets and liabilities.
Assets
Brokerage (+10.8% Month, -13.9% YTD):
The stock market staged a big rebound in April and regained much of the losses from March. Our cash allocation meant that we captured most but not all of the gains of the market. Of course, we are still down 13.9% for the year.
It’s obviously never fun to see the value of your investments go down, but lower stock prices mean more attractive valuations.
Retirement Accounts (+1.8% Month, -1.3% YTD)
This includes a 401(k), two IRAs, and two Roth IRAs (one of each for my wife and me). The only account we are currently contributing to is the 401(k).
Of course, any withdrawals from these accounts will be taxed at our marginal income tax rate, which means we should probably be valuing these accounts at a ~30% discount.
We have a decent sized international allocation in our retirement accounts to offset our almost exclusively US investments in our brokerage accounts, and this explains the difference in performance between our retirement accounts and the S&P 500.
529 accounts (+10.6% Month, -6.7% YTD):
Not much to say here – we are contributing $500/month/child into these accounts, and given that our kids are 6 and 4, we are approaching the point where we have enough money in these accounts and it will make sense to stop contributing. Given their ages, it’s reasonable to expect the money to increase by 3x by the time they go off to college, and that would result in roughly $90k/kid.
My advice to clients is to fund your 529 accounts so they’ll cover roughly 75% of your kids’ projected college costs. The problem of course is that nobody knows how much college will cost when their kid goes to school, or what school the kid will go to, or whether or not the kid will get any scholarships. As a result, it’s best to slightly underfund the accounts, and there are penalties for pulling the money out for non-education related expenses.
Assuming both of our kids go to college, both accounts will be completely liquidated in about 20 years. Based on my calculations, these accounts should pay for 90%+ of the total 4-year cost at a state university. The remaining amounts will be paid out of our then-current cash flow.
Checking (-0.7% Month, +131.0% YTD):
Our goal is to keep about $50k in cash in our checking account. This is due to an abundance of caution. I work in an inherently unstable field (sales) and my income varies widely from month to month. Keeping a good chunk of cash in our checking account helps me sleep well at night, and given the events of the last month, I think more people are understanding the value of cash.
Our checking account balance was essentially unchanged in April.
Private investments: unchanged
We have 2 separate private equity investments. Since there’s no way to value these investments I will continue to keep them valued at my initial investment amount.
I’ve heard that there might be a liquidity event for one of my private equity investments later this year. It’s nothing other than a rumor at this point, so I’m not going to adjust my valuation until it becomes real.
Stock options: (+13.5% Month, +51.3% Year)
These options vest quarterly and a new block of stock vested on April 1st. I’m valuing my stock options at the price used for the most recent liquidity event. This block of options has a strike price substantially higher than my previous blocks of options, which means the valuation is lower (this block was worth $6,125 and the previous 4 blocks were worth $11,375 each.
The next block of options will vest on July 1, 2020.
Rental properties (+0% Month, +1.9% YTD):
We update the value of our rental properties at the end of each calendar quarter. No update this month.
Primary residence (+6.7% Month, +6.7% YTD):
We update the value of our primary residence at the end of each calendar quarter. No update this month.
Total Assets (+4.2% Month, -3.5% YTD):
Our assets are down over $265k in 2020. That’s a pretty rough start to the year.
The good news is that although valuations are down, my job is stable, we have plenty of cash, and I’m much more concerned with our investment income than net worth.
Total assets after adjusting for MCTWI (+3.6% Month, -2.5% YTD):
This is a better indicator of our performance for the month. The adjusted number indicates that the market’s valuation moved a bit towards a “normal” valuation over the course of the month.
You’ll note that our net worth adjusted for the Money Commando True Wealth Index is significantly more stable than our unadjusted net worth. That’s what we’d expect in times that changes in the market are due to changes in valuation rather than changes in underlying fundamentals.
Liabilities
Just a note on the numbers below – since these are liabilities, a negative number (reduction in liability) is good, while a positive number (and increase in liabilities) is bad.
Credit cards (+96.0% Month, -52.4% YTD)
We pay our balances in full each month, so the ebb and flow of our balance is more reflective of when our payment is made than anything else.
Rental mortgages (-0.2% Month, -1.2% YTD)
We are chipping away at these mortgages, and we’ve been paying off about 0.2% of the balance each month.
At the rate we are paying off our mortgages we are 20+ years from retiring these loans.
Primary residence mortgage (-0.5% Month, -0.9% YTD)
Although I don’t really consider our house to be an asset, I definitely consider our home loan a liability. I think it would be difficult to retire early with substantial mortgage payments hanging over our heads. We need to have this paid off before I can really consider retirement.
We are making steady progress on this, but we have a long way to go to pay this loan off completely.
Total liabilities (-0.2% Month, -1.3% YTD)
We continue chipping away at our liabilities. Although all of our debts are “good” debt (mortgages on income producing property or our primary residence), I’d still rather have no debt, and I’m eagerly looking forward to when we start paying off the loans. The smallest loan (for one of our rental properties) should be paid off in 5-7 years, and after that the rest should start falling faster.
Total net worth (+5.1% Month, -4.0% YTD)
This month was a big bounce back from the devastation of March. We’re still down a bit YTD, but being down 4% is certainly not going to keep me up at night. In addition, our net worth is back over $6M for the first time since January, so that’s a nice milestone.
When you look at our net worth over time you can see how volatile the last few months have been.
Asset Allocation
Here’s what our current asset allocation looks like:
And here’s what it looks like if you exclude our primary residence (which I don’t really consider an asset).
Ultimately I think the perfect asset allocation for us would be something like 75% equity, 15% real estate investments, 5% primary residence, and 5% cash. This will require some additional investments in rental properties, as our primary residence will eventually be paid off and the current value of our house is ~$1.7M. This means we’ll need to eventually have rental properties worth ~$5.1M in order for our rental property equity to be worth 3x our primary residence.
I’ve had some people ask about the lack of bonds in our portfolio. Our rental real estate allocation effectively takes the place of bonds in our portfolio. Real estate provides relatively steady returns and is largely uncorrelated with the stock market.
In addition, I don’t particularly like bonds right now, especially given that the Fed has cut interest rates to 0%. Why would you lock in sub 1% returns (which will almost certainly underperform inflation) when you could buy real estate with higher (although more variable) income?
Conclusion
The craziness in the market continues. The markets were down big in February and March but have rebounded strongly in April. Where will we go from here? Nobody knows what’s coming next, but I am feeling pretty good about our current investments and our strong cash position.
I put some of that cash to work as soon as I find some interesting places to invest it.
How did everybody else do this month? What’s your asset allocation, and how does it compare to your ideal allocation?
Hey MC,
Hope you and your family are well.
Good comeback on April!
Question: You have a good cash cushion to payoff some mortgages. Either investment properties or primary residence mortgage. Why you haven’t decided to pay some of them off?
Keep up the good work.
You’re right – we have enough cash on hand to pay off most of our primary mortgage or 3-4 of the rental property mortgages.
Why haven’t we done so?
The short answer is that as I’ve gotten older I’ve gotten more conservative financially. I’ve heard too many stories of people getting overextended and/or over leveraged, resulting in complete financial ruin. We have a large amount of debt (at least from an absolute perspective but certainly less so from a relative perspective), and I like to keep cash on hand to ensure that we’ll absolutely be able to service that debt.
In addition, during both the Tech Bubble and the Subprime Mortgage Bubble I was fully invested when stock market valuations plummeted, leaving me unable to purchase stocks when they were ridiculously cheap. After 2010 I vowed to never be in that position again.
So, I keep a big chunk of cash on hand to both reduce the risk to our overall net worth as well as enable us to take advantage of awesome opportunities when they become available.
Understood.
Will it be wise to send a reasonable amount of cash to your primary mortgage and still, keep a good amount of cash at hand?
I ask you, because we are some what in the same position.
At this point, I wish we had MORE cash, not less. Frankly, I’ve been waiting and planning for this downturn for YEARS, so I’m going to use this cash to scoop up stocks when they are cheap.
However, my plan is a higher risk and higher reward option than using cash to pay down mortgages, so you’ll need to decide for yourself what makes sense for your financial situation.
I will say this though – during the good times everybody forgets about how useful and valuable it is to have cash on hand. During tough times I’ve never heard a client say that they wish they had less cash.
True!
I agree with you.
Not only cash provides options and opportunities. It also have a positive psychological effect.
And I think the psychological effect should not be overlooked. It’s much easier to remain calm and avoid selling stocks during a downturn if you have sufficient cash on hand to pay expenses for 1-2 years.
True!
Hey, I was going to ask you.
Why do you use the MCTWI with your RE investments?
I thought the MCTWI was more for dollar-denominated assets.
The short answer is: I don’t.
My calculations only apply the MCTWI to my brokerage accounts, retirement accounts, and 529 accounts (all of which are invested in the stock market). I don’t apply the MCTWI to checking, private equity, stock options, rental properties, or primary residence. I think it would be feasible to find a way to calculate over/under valuation for real estate, but given that the calculations would need to be regional, I don’t think it’s worth my time to do. I have properties in too many locations, and whatever calculation I come up with wouldn’t be useful to any readers.
Got It!